UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY EARTHQUAKE HAZARDS PROGRAM

Robert A. Page

Historical Summary

The United States Geological Survey (USGS) was established in 1879 with responsibility for "classification of the public lands, and examination of the geological structure, mineral resources, and products of the national domain" (Rabbitt, 1989). Earthquakes were an early subject of study, both as an agent sculpting the landscape of the western United States and as a violent geologic phenomenon capable of great destruction. In the first few decades of the USGS, its scientists investigated many damaging earthquakes, including the 1811-1812 New Madrid, Missouri earthquakes (Fuller, 1912), the 1886 Charleston, South Carolina earthquake (Dutton, 1887), and the 1906 San Francisco, California earthquake (Lawson, 1908).

Not until the 1960's, when the second largest earthquake of the 20th century struck southern Alaska in 1964 (U.S. Geological Survey, 1965-1970), did the USGS initiate a sustained program to improve scientific understanding of earthquakes in order to reduce future earthquake losses. In 1965, an earthquake research center (1968 and 1972) was established in California and the seeds were planted for a formal earthquake research program bringing together geologic, seismological and geophysical disciplines. The great Alaska earthquake also stimulated several national reports identifying research studies needed to mitigate the impact of future earthquakes. These included proposals for ten-year programs to pursue earthquake prediction (Ad Hoc Panel on earthquake Prediction, 1965) and to ameliorate earthquake hazards (Ad Hoc Interagency Working Group for Earthquake Research, 1968).

The 1970's were a decade of great growth for earthquake research in the United States. In 1973, the earthquake monitoring, reporting and research activities of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (begun in the U.S. Coast and Geodetic Survey early in the 20th century) were transferred into the USGS and integrated with ongoing USGS activities into the USGS Earthquake Hazard Reduction Program (Wallace, 1974). The major elements of the combined program were earthquake hazard mapping and risk evaluation, earthquake prediction, earthquake modification and control, seismic engineering, earthquake information services, post--earthquake studies, and application of earth-science knowledge to reducing earthquake losses. The talents and capabilities of universities, State agencies and the private sector were enlisted in pursuit of program goals.

A rash of earthquake disasters around the globe made 1976 one of the worst years for earthquake deaths in world history. More than 240,000 Chinese people were killed in the Tangshan earthquake of 26 July 1976, the year after tens of thousands of deaths were averted by the prediction of the Haicheng earthquake and evacuation of hazardous buildings. These circumstances prompted the President's Science Adviser to ask the National Science Foundation (NSF) and the USGS to jointly prepare a plan outlining the research needed as the technological basis for making earthquake predictions, strengthening building codes, and improving land-use practice (National Science Foundation and U.S. Geological Survey, 1976). The following year the United States Congress enacted the Earthquake Hazards Reduction Act of 1977 (Public Law 95-124) establishing the multi-agency National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP) and authorizing major expansion of the earthquake programs of the NSF and USGS. Important NEHRP roles for the Federal Emergency Management Agency and the National Bureau of Standards (later to become the National Institute of Standards and Technology) were defined in subsequest Congressional reauthorizations of the Act.

With the creation of NEHRP, the budget of the USGS earthquake program was expanded threefold. The components of the USGS program remained largely the same, but emphasis shifted among the program elements (Hamilton, 1978). Research on methods to predict the occurrence of earthquakes became the largest element and remained so through most of the 1980s. Hazard assessment and mapping continued as a major component; fundamental studies into the causes and mechanisms of earthquakes were nurtured; research on earthquake modification and control focused on induced seismicity.

Major scientific progress under NEHRP was achieved on several fronts (Hanks, 1985), but earthquake prediction remained an elusive goal throughout the 1980s. The great damage in the extended San Francisco Bay region of central California from the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake led to a refocusing of the USGS program when emphasis shifted from predicting the occurrence of earthquakes to predicting their effects (Page et al., 1992). Earthquake potential studies and hazards assessment were expanded in four regions in particular--southern California, San Francisco Bay, Pacific Northwest (Shedlock and Weaver, 1991), and central Mississippi Valley (Hamilton and Johnston, 1990).

The 1994 Northridge, California and 1995 Kobe, Japan earthquakes further underscored the vulnerability of modern urban centers to even moderate-sized earthquakes. To help reduce future losses, the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program at the end of the 20th century is focused on three activities (Page et al., 1997):

(1) producing maps, reports and planning scenarios and demonstrating their application to risk assessment and loss reduction;
(2) collecting, interpreting and disseminating information on United States and significant foreign earthquakes in support of disaster response, scientific research, global security, earthquake preparedness, and public education; and
(3) pursuing fundamental research to understand earthquake occurrence and effects in order to develop and improve methods of hazard assessment and strategies for loss reduction.

In his oral history, Robert E. Wallace (1999) recounts aspects of the origin and development of the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program.

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